Final Conflict 2004Tourney Prediction

August 15,  2004

Saitama Super Arena

Japan

Well, as the old saying goes, better late than never. With just a couple of hours to go, the PRIDE

Heavyweight Grand Prix will start and a champion will be crowned by the end of the event.

The first semi-final bout we'll talk about is Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Sergei Kharitonov. Nogueira

will definitely have his hands full with Kharitonov. Kharitonov has proven himself to have very good stand-up

skills and really good ground movement. He is not at the caliber of Nogueira on the ground but his stand-up

makes up the difference. And even though Kharitonov possesses very good skills, I still believe Nogueira will

find a way to submit him. First off, Nog will probably test Kharitonov stand-up skills in the first round but

right after he gets nailed once or twice, he is going to take it right to the ground - don't get me wrong, Nog

has been improving with his boxing skills but I just don't think he is going to want to exchange bombs with

Kharitonov. Now, toward the end of the fight, as Kharitonov starts getting a little tired, he'll get a little

careless on the ground where Nog will finish him with either an arm-bar or I'll go as far as to say a Mata de

leon (rear naked choke).


The next semi-final bout we'll see is Fedor Emelianenko vs. Naoya Ogawa. This one, I expect it to end

quick - I know, I know, where's the respect for Ogawa. I'm not saying Ogawa shouldn't be here, I'm just

saying Emelianenko is going to want to finish him off quick since he has to fight twice so Emelianenko will

go out and just throw bombs - putting pressure on Ogawa that he has never seen before. He'll overwhelm

a game Ogawa, who will no doubt try to fight back but the current PRIDE heavyweight champion,

Emelianenko, will just be too much - Emelianenko will be victorious by ref stoppage in the first round.


So now we come to the tournament final. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Fedor Emelianenko.

Ex-heavyweight champion vs. current heavyweight champion. This is going to be a good one. Emelianenko

will try to do what he did last time he fought and defeated Nogueira, but guess what,  Nog is a much better

boxer now and he will use his reach this time to keep Emelianenko away. Nog will stay outside until he is

ready to take Emelianenko down - but I don't think he will do it right away. Nog will be looking to frustrate

Emelianenko to the point where Emelianenko won't be able to execute his game plan. When Nog realizes

this, that's when it goes to the ground. Many sub attempts but no gold. These two will go the distance

again. Nogueira wins the decision and becomes the heavyweight Grand Prix champion.

My two cents,

Al

Card Subject to Change

(8/14/04)